Published research, held to what happened
The public track record
Each thesis here is one yes-or-no question with a date. Tibeb's committee gave a probability before the answer was known; once the date comes, the outcome is recorded and the probability is scored (Brier: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is saying 50% every time). Each published thesis also carries a hypothetical model basket: the listed companies its evidence shows are exposed, long or short. Every change to a basket is a dated line in a hash-chained log you can download and check below.
A hypothetical model portfolio for research and education. Not investment advice, not an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. No trading costs, borrow fees or dividends are included. Every published thesis is shown, the ones that went wrong included.
The house index
One hypothetical portfolio across every open published basket, derived from the log below by a fixed rule, so anyone with the log can reproduce it. Its holdings, every rebalance and — when the data licence is held — its return against SPY.
The theses
Open theses
Resolved theses
How a basket is built
Equal weight across the names in the basket, at most 10% a name; whatever that leaves is held as cash. Long where the company benefits under the scenario the committee leans to, short where it is hurt; out when the committee is undecided, when its exposure is to the other scenario, or when it was set aside. The basket changes when the exposure or the committee's verdict changes, and closes when the thesis resolves.
Verify the log
Every line of the log holds the hash of the line before it: sha256(previous hash + the line as JSON, keys sorted, no spaces), the first line pointing at sixty-four zeros. Change any line, or drop one, and every hash after it stops matching. Your browser recomputes them here from the downloaded log.
| Lines | — |
|---|---|
| Head hash | — |
| In your browser | Not checked yet. |
| The index | Not checked yet. |
| Copies | |
| Anchored | — |
The head is also timestamped by the public OpenTimestamps calendars, which put it in a Bitcoin transaction within hours, so the log can be checked against a time nobody at Tibeb controls. To check a proof yourself, install the OpenTimestamps client and run ots verify -d <head> proof.ots (the head is the SHA-256 being timestamped; a pending proof is completed by ots upgrade proof.ots). Every proof is listed at /api/public/record/anchors.